CIA Reading Room cia-rdp88-01315r000400390071-1: CAN THE RUSSIANS CHEAT?

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Approved For Release 2005/01/12 : CIA-RDP88-01315R0004003900~1~11 g , ;, I ARTICLE APPEARED THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR r q i S fl f ON pACg yc r 18 April 1979 The Monitor's view a the f3hossians c;heiclt? It would be a pity if the whole public debate their own defenses. But this is not deemed the over the upcoming SALT treaty reduced'to the same as violations, And in cases where the US-. issue of verification. Many Senate critics now has felt Soviet actions violated the spirit of the are latching onto this issue as the easiest. to pact by exploiting loopholes, it has asked the attack. The-American-publieis thrown off by Russians to draw back and they have done so. esoteric arguments about. throw-weight and ..Certainly the Senate, in taking up SALT U, will=` ?multiple reentryvehicles but. it understands have to screen the-treaty to make sure no well the simple. question: Can the, Russians loopholes exist. cheat or not? If treaty opponents hammer In the final analysis, it. comes, down to a away at the question -of Soviet compliance,. matter of Soviet national interest. -Perhaps the - they are more likely to have. an` appealing United States will not be able to guarantee to- cause. tal compliance with the treaty; but, given irn- We would not minimize -the importance of proved satellite reconnaissance, it,-will-catch .verification. CIA director Stanfield Turner's any major violations. In such case, the Soviet testimony to. the. Senate that it will take sev- Union would lose credibility in the arms nego eral years.for the United States to restore its tiations, the whole structure of detente would intelligence capability _following the loss of come tumbling down, and Soviet-American re- monitoring sites in Iran is disappointing news. lations would revert to a new cold war. Is that'" But it might be pointed out that he was careful a risk Moscow would bear?" . not to make any overall judgment on the SALT Our main point,: however, "is that verification verification issue. Moreover, it is hard for the is but one facet of SALT II. The question sena- administration to, defend itself on this question tors and .all Americans must - address is because this would mean making public raw in- whether the pact will enhance strategic arms telligence data and exposing its intelligence, 'stability, whether it will reverse the nuclear gathering methods. This is not an area of easy arms race, and whether it will preserve Amer- public discussion. ica's ability to defend itself and its allies. Also, Looking at past history, however, the public. what the consequences will be -in economic can be assured that the Russians have not been. cost